This is part of the EU Fact File

Verdict: OUT – EU growth seems to be stalling compared to the UK and other developed countries. The reason is hard to explain – but it could be due to the EURO and over-regulation? However should we in the UK wait and see why and if the EU manage to overcome this? If we left the EU we might be more likely to follow the likes of Switzerland and Australia?

Economy

Normally measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (¹).

In 2015 (just got the latest figures) the UK was the worlds 5th biggest economy (all in billion USD below):

1. United States: 17,968
2. China: 11,385
3. Japan: 4,116
4. Germany: 3,371
5. United Kingdom: 2,865
6. France: 2,423
7. India: 2,183
8. Italy: 1,819
9. Brazil: 1,800
10. Canada: 1,573

EU and World GDP⁴:

In spite of the EU enlargement the EU GDP has fallen compared to rest of the world.

Looking at GDP in PCT of the World GDP:

UK has be relatively stable around 4-5% hence following global growth, whereas the EU total has been falling steadily since 2003 – even before the 2008 crisis – falling behind the UK.

Looking at other G10 countries:

Even the US is doing very well even though the 2008 crisis originated here hence they need to grow more to get back to parity.

When looking at the G10 EU countries and other developed countries since year 2000:

The UK is gaining more than the rest of top EU countries but the UK also had a larger drop since the crisis in 2006.

Australia and Canada did very well indeed as a commonwealth countries.

Switzerland did very well as a EFTA country.

Japan did terrible but have had many natural disasters the last few years.

People says if the UK was to leave EU then Scotland might leave the UK as well – so impact of this would be (²):

• Scotland: £153 Billion which is circa $234 Billion
• Scotland subtracted from the UK figures we get: 2,865 – 234 = 2,631
• So the UK would still be the 5th largest world economy if Scotland left the UK and still be in the G7

Questions to be asked:

1. What impact has the slump in oil prices on the Scottish GDP?
   Some hints in article (₄) so seems Scotland is stable hence 5th place should be stable in near term.
2. As the EU is getting weaker from a global point should we not mainly seek to trade with growing countries?
3. If the EU actually holding us back to grow like the rest of the world?
   The G10 in EU graph looks like the EU is dragging us down…

Good Articles (_subscripted)

References (^{superscripted})

1. http://knoema.com/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2015-data-and-charts
2. http://scottishgovernment.presscentre.com/News/Quarterly-National-Accounts-Scotland-2015-Q1-1bf1.aspx
3. http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/international-transactions/outward-foreign-affiliates-statistics/how-important-is-the-european-union-to-uk-trade-and-investment-/sty-eu.html
4. http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php

Change log:

1. 20/3/16: Created from main fact file
2. 20/3/16: Added IMF GDP Excel graph’s